January is a tough time to go. I think the mountain guides that take groups up the Mountaineers Route wait until late February to start their trips. This gives the snow time to consolidate, making it easier to go up the canyon without using the Ebersbacher Ledges. I just don't know how it will be in January. If the snow isn't that deep, I think I'd opt for crampons on the E-Ledges.
As for the main trail: most winter hikers just take the MR due to its being a shorter and more direct trip. On the Main Trail, you will spend extra energy tramping extra miles through the soft snow. Better to use the MR so each step counts more.
If you get an early start from the Portal, it certainly seems like UBSL by dusk is possible. But that of course depends on how deep and fresh the snow is. You just won't know until you get there.
By the way, the snowfall so far is not much of a "big dump". We have seen lots more and farther down, in some years. The "
web cam notes" picture is how big dumps appear.
