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I would like your opinions as to whether or not it's safe to try to summit Split again in a week or two? I know there will be snow, but I'm not sure how much of a danger avalanches are at higher elevation (steep ascend up to summit of Split). I have an ice axe and crampons and experience using them, but I would prefer to get opinions about the possible dangers of going up there this early winter before I make plans to go again.
Thanks!
illyav
Big high routes like those from the Owens Valley to 14ers don't see much travel in early winter for reasons beyond just their length. Once deep soft snow has fallen it isn't likely to be safe until spring.
Looking at the Split Mountain trail consider:
1) The entire trail is on or below slopes steep enough for worst case avalanche danger after snow accumulations.
2) The trail changes direction and elevation so much that there is no opportunity to find "similar aspect slopes" to evaluate for avalanche danger before you are on the slopes in question and you don't have access to evaluate the slopes above and off of the trail. The avalanche evaluations performed in the more traveled resort areas further north don't apply reliably to the trails and slopes here.
3) Once you find yourself in a dangerous situation, there are no safer alternate routes. (If a bowl the trail crosses is dangerous, there is no less steep forested ridge to travel instead.}
On White mountain the snow line is likely to be higher and the ridge tops may be swept free of snow, but the same three points bite you on the scree sections at 9000'-10000', 11000'-13000' and 13500' and up.
While it may be that ice ax and crampons are necessary for progress in places, there is no expectation that they provide any safety.
If you want to spend some useful and interesting time in the area after snow has fallen, there are a number of guide services that provide avalanche training in the Eastern Sierra.
Dale B. Dalrymple
