It is not the temp alone but wind that makes the big difference. That wind shell, top and bottom, is the life saver. An easy day with 35 F is altogether different with a 50 mph wind, wet, injured, or hunkered down. These things can happen even on a dayhike. Have I ever skimped? Yes, but all of us taken unnecessary chances at times, all to save a few lbs that really does not matter in the long run. When faced with a choice, play it safe