Originally Posted by Steve C
Originally Posted by bruce
What is the norm for the unsuccessful percentage. 72% seems high, as up till this year (and one year prior) I've always been successful for a Monday in September.
I can't find results for last year, but for 2019, results show:
16,842 applications were submitted
34% of Group Leaders were Awarded a Date of their Choice

Applications went up from 17k to 25k. Winners went from 34% to 28%. There is a lot of pent-up desire to get out and hike! I am sure COVID is part of the problem, and so is the trail being closed last year.

I would say that your 24 year streak of successfully getting permits was extremely lucky.

One year I was unsuccessful, but yeah probably luckier than most. Monday's in September though I'm sure have a lot higher success rate than a weekend day in August. I don't remember how the permit system worked 20 years ago but I imagine that it was far easier then. These days, social media has made everything bucket list related harder to get into.