I think you misunderstood me Jim. The media is hyping cases now, because that is what is going up. But you don't hear about the covid death rate plummeting. From your post, it doesn't seem you are aware of it either. I prefer to look at trends and no trend is more important than people dying from this. Fortunately that most important trend is heading in the right direction.
The death rate tells us about how well we were doing a few weeks ago. In the last month, national new cases haven't changed. Deaths have dropped. That means that the case to death conversion rate has improved. So we have learned something about how to treat symptoms to reduce fatalities from the first 50,000 deaths But that is not enough. I still think 100,000 dead is too many. The death rate is the product of the new case rate and that conversion rate, so the new case rate matters as well.
The new case rate is our nearest reflection of the effects of what we are doing now. That's why the new case rate should and does lead the news.
If you care about the 'most important trends', let's look at California which surrounds the Whitney Zone. The death rate hasn't changed much in the last month and the new case rate has not stopped rising. That leaves little reason to reduce PPE requirements and social distancing. How do we open up in this situation? Is it appropriate to allow activities that have traditionally been engaged in by groups that cross household boundaries? The federal government has determined to abandon support and control of that and all other reopening decisions to the states. California has a plan that assigns authority to the health officials of each county. Federal agencies have honored that county authority. That means that the Inyo NF will not be able to predict what and when Inyo County's decisions will be.
With no vaccine and no general COVID-19 virus treatment there is a long way to go and the path will continue to be invented one step at a time without much warning.
Dale B. Dalrymple
