My over all point comes down to simple time frame. When your heading out for a week you can never tell what will happen but if your going out for an over night trip and the forecast shows clear what are the odds that some freak storm is going to come out of no where and give you trouble?
All it takes is a cold rain or snow-induced hypothermia, a rain-induced mud or rockslide, a wind-induced treefall on your head. All these are weather-events. Add a solo hiker with a broken leg, no magic helicopter, and you are stuck for a while at best, or dead.
Remember that saying, "mountains make their own weather.' At the risk of sounding paternalistic, come back and report when you are my age, 63. I agree about going "bare" for maybe 4 hours. After that, hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Experience had taught us to expect nothing of the weather. Eric Shipton,
Land of Tempest page 753
