Hi, Brent! I would answer your question by saying, "it depends"!! I know, kind of worthless, but its mostly true. Immediate, onsight assessment is really the only way to know about conditions.
But, consider this: as the seasons shift, and ice starts to form, water continues to flow over the surface, creating thick and slick layers. Now, typically, the air is not quite as cold *during* a snowstorm, and snow itself is insulating, so the surface of the ice becomes slightly roughened and the snow sticks to it. This was exactly the condition I found on both Mirror and Lone Pine Lake last December when I attempted to skate on them. Now, this does NOT imply that the ice is no longer slick.
I primarily made the statement because I hear of more and more people trying to "save weight" by taking microspikes instead of crampons. If that's what people want to do, then fine, but I would hope that decision is coupled with good judgement of what the equipment limitations might be. The spikes are GREAT on level, flat ice when stepping extremely cautiously (my other friend Brent and I used them while on the trail to Pine Lake) or on well-packed snow (I used them with Betsy on the switchbacks when we climbed Mt. Muir in 2010). Hell, I've even used them on well-suncupped, steeper snow, which raised some eyebrows with my good friends.
If the snow is condolidated and has bound well to the underlying layers, then it can indeed be a bit more stable. But that takes digging to the bottom and (wait for it) *looking* at the conditions. Sorry if I sound facetious, it's not meant to be snide. I think the greater point is that we each really need to take responsibility for ourselves out there and know *exactly* what you're getting yourself into. Even as part of a group, each individual is responsible for talking with the other members about concerns and questions and observations.
Oh dear, I'm starting to babble...
Actually, I'm hoping to hear from Dustrunner on this, as an experienced SAR person.
-L
